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From: c crabby [mailto:crabby6@...]
Sent: Tuesday, May 16, 2006 4:25 PM
Subject: East Coast a Major Threat Area for 2006 Hurricane Season Factors and Information

East Coast a Major Threat Area for 2006 Hurricane Season Factors and Information
STATE COLLEGE, PA, May 15, 2006-AccuWeather.com 2006 Hurricane Season Forecast Factors and Information. 
Executive Summary
The 2006 Hurricane Season forecast this year is highlighting the region from the Carolinas northeast as the prime area for above-normal risk of impact from hurricane activity. While the Carolina coast has seen direct hurricane landfalls several times since the start of the current multi-decadal cycle in 1995 (Bertha and Fran in 1996, Bonnie in 1998, Floyd in 1999 and Isabel in 2003), Long Island and southeastern New England have escaped a hurricane strike. Other areas at elevated risk are the Gulf Coast from central Louisiana westward, especially early in the season, with an eye toward the southwest Florida Gulf coast later in the season. The only good news is that this pattern suggests a significantly reduced risk, relative to normal, for the eastern and central Gulf Coast - an area hit by four named storms last season, two of which were major hurricanes. The initial landfall forecast is for three major (Category 3 or greater) hurricane hits this year on the United States coast, two hurricanes of Category 2 or less and one tropical storm - a total of six storms making landfall. 
Historical Perspective
It has been a long time since a hurricane has made landfall in New England (Bob in 1991 was the last one) but it is not as uncommon as some may think. In the last active Atlantic Basin hurricane cycle, 1938, 1944 and 1954 stand out as years with significant landfalls in New England and, in the case of 1954, there were two such landfalls. One might ask is that as bad as it can get? Could the Northeast be hit by a storm more destructive than what was seen in 1938, 1944, and 1954? It could be argued that, just as with New Orleans, residents of the Northeast were fortunate in those years because there is a scenario where it could have been worse. Studying the tracks of Hazel (1954) and, more recently, Fran (1996) and Isabel (2003), a shift of 100 to 200 miles in the tracks of these storms would have brought landfalls from central New Jersey north along the Eastern Seaboard of a storm that was moving west of north. This motion means there would be little of the typical disruption or destruction on the western side of the hurricane by virtue of wind flowing off the drier land into the circulation. Crossing abnormally warm water close to the coast would leave little time for weakening. This would mean a hurricane with the intensity of Hugo (1989) could hit areas as far north as southern New England, resulting in extreme damage. A hurricane curving to the northeast as it moves toward New England, such as in 1938 or 1954, is still the most likely type of landfall in New England since we have already experienced this. However, just because it has not happened before does not mean it cannot happen at all. 
Factors For The Upcoming Season
Along the East Coast, southeastern Florida and the Carolinas have the highest statistical risk of landfalls, since the greatest number of storms over the course of record keeping have hit in these two areas. Our forecast measures likelihood relative to normal and shows that, in spite of the normally higher number of storms expected, the Carolinas are still in an above-normal risk region. This means the greatest overall threat of a landfall will be on the Carolina coastline, but the greatest elevated threat, in relationship to averages, will be in New England. It is felt that the heavy rain in New England in October last year were the sign of the maturing of the warm-water cycle in the Atlantic. The landfall forecast is based upon several key factors and a study of past years with similarly pronounced weather features. 

1) North American Climate/Hurricane Cycle 

The expected building of heat and dryness this summer across the midsection of the United States is a pattern very reminiscent of the conditions experienced in the 1930s and again during several years in the 1940s and 1950s. Not coincidentally, it is felt that general positioning of the upper-level steering currents over North America and ocean water temperatures relative to normal helped contribute to what was identified as an approximately 20-year cycle of above-normal tropical cyclone activity in the Gulf and Atlantic Basin. The current multi-decadal cycle of elevated activity, which started in 1995, is similar to the cycle from the 1930s to the 1950s, which produced major hurricane hits on the United States coastline at a much more frequent rate than the downtime that occurred in the mid- and late 1960s through early 1990s. As for the Gulf of Mexico, major landfalls have occurred during downtimes in the early part of the century, including the more recent downturn. A classic example of this occurred between 1961 and 1971. During this period, six major hurricanes hit the Gulf Coast while either intensifying or maintaining strength as they came ashore (Carla, Hilda, Betsy, Beulah, Camille, Celia). In contrast, during the current cycle, major hurricanes in the western and central Gulf have been weakening as they come ashore. Our view is that the climate cycle signal is of more importance along the East Coast than the Gulf Coast relative to landfalls. 

The climate cycle of the 1930s to 1950s was characterized by many hot, dry summers centered over the central Plains of the United States, with expansion northeast toward the Great Lakes and Northeast as the summer progressed. But with extremes, either hotter or colder, during the summer in the nation's midsection relative to the East Coast, the threat of hurricane activity appears to increase on the Eastern Seaboard. While the colder years such as 1960, 1985, and 1996 did feature significant East Coast storms (Donna, Gloria, Bertha and Fran), the hotter pattern that appears to be setting up across the Plains this year identifies some startling analog years (1938, 1944, 1954, 1955, 1991 and 1999), including 1954. During that year across the midsection of the nation, April was very warm with a turn to colder weather in May followed by the return of warmth for June. The first two have set up this year, and the warmer pattern is already starting to take shape for the last week of May. (For example, Kansas City was 7.7 degrees above normal in April and is 1.5 degrees below normal so far in May). The 1954 hurricane season is significant since three hurricanes made landfall on the East Coast (Carol at the end of August on eastern Long Island, Edna in the second week of September in southeastern Massachusetts, and Hazel in mid-October in the Carolinas). 

2) Cycle Within The Cycle 

An interesting pattern has developed, almost a rhythm in hurricane hits that seems to feature an El Nino, followed by major Gulf of Mexico tropical cyclone activity, then a swing toward East Coast activity associated with the cooling Pacific Ocean. This phenomenon has been shifting back and forth since the start of the more active cycle in the Atlantic Basin in 1995, and can even be tracked back into the 1980s. More recent examples are the hurricane tandems of 1995 and 1996, 1998 and 1999, and then 2002 and 2003. In viewing the tandem of 1998-1999, a version of 1998 may have appeared last season. In 1998, Georges and Earl were in the Gulf of Mexico along with many tropical storms, and Bonnie was on the East Coast. Bonnie was noticeably stronger than last year's Ophelia, which danced with the North Carolina coast before slipping northeastward into the northern Atlantic. In 1998, the targeted area for most activity was Cape Hatteras to Brownsville, centered on the Gulf Coast. The following year, the tropical cyclone tracks swung to the east with the exception of Brett hitting Texas. With the Pacific Ocean cooling and the extremely active Gulf season last year, the cycle within the cycle points to increased threat on the East Coast in 2006. 

3) For Development, A Favorable Shift in Northwest Atlantic Water Temperatures 

The heavy rain that moved into New England last fall was a signal about the effects increased water temperatures in the northwest Atlantic Ocean could have on storms capable of tapping into this source. There was not enough time last season for this to fully translate into an increased number of named tropical cyclones. The large-scale warming that is occurring offshore through a deep layer of water initially enhances dips in the jet stream near the East Coast, since warming of the air just above the water happens faster than at higher levels of the atmosphere. If this did not change through the entire hurricane season, steering currents would probably push tropical cyclones more to the east and thus miss the New England coast completely. However, later in summer, the stability of the air changes, and the upper levels of the atmosphere tend to favor higher-than-normal temperatures and high pressure farther north. The corresponding change in steering currents would then no longer protect New England. So, this makes what might look like an unfavorable weather pattern for tropical cyclones to move northward to New England in the first half of the season into a potential corridor for such tropical tracks during the second half of the season. This signal is much more developed this season than it was last season. 
Early Season Concerns
The Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean typically are the focal point of early season activity in the Atlantic Basin. Favorable wind flow higher in the atmosphere and warm water temperatures are the main ingredients. Last season, the region that AccuWeather.com was most worried about for an early season landfall was from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Tropical Storm Arlene formed during the second week of June and made landfall June 11th in southern Mississippi. This season, attention should be paid to the western Gulf of Mexico with potential for early season landfall in southwestern Louisiana or Texas. As the expected summer pattern begins to take shape in late May and June, an upper-level high pressure system will set up across the western Plains and southern Rockies. Tropical cyclones are frequently steered around the edge of such highs, and the movement of air from lower pressure to higher pressure can act like an exhaust pipe for the tropical cyclone's engine, making it run more efficiently or, in meteorological terms, make storm development happen quickly. 

Along with this upper-level high pressure system, the jet stream will repeatedly dive southward across the eastern third of the United States. As the jet stream then pulls back northward, a contrasting air mass situation is left behind. Regions where there are contrasting air masses are favorable for surface low pressure to form. We expect this to be possible across portions of the Gulf of Mexico into June. With low pressure possibly forming in this region and then being steered and enhanced across the western Gulf of Mexico by high pressure to the north and west, and plenty of warm water in the Gulf, there is a recipe for potential development in the western Gulf of Mexico of a tropical cyclone. 
Could The Northeast Gulf of Mexico Escape This Season?
The exact location of these features at the time of tropical storm formation will determine the area of greatest risk. AccuWeather.com believes that risk to be highest along the Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts, with lesser risk in areas to the east, because the upper-level wind patterns would not be as favorable for development. Less risk does not mean no risk. Even though our analog years do not show any landfalls in the region from north of Tampa to southern Alabama, it would not be prudent for this region to let its guard down. With the extreme damage from New Orleans to the Florida Panhandle produced during last year's tropical season, this area is vulnerable should even a weak tropical cyclone strike, because the region's defenses are still compromised. 
Conclusions: 
The initial forecast is for six landfalling tropical cyclones. Of these six, there will be three major hurricane hits this year on the United States coast, two hurricanes of Category 2 or less and one tropical storm. AccuWeather.com forecasts two areas of prime concern during the upcoming hurricane season -- the Carolinas northward at the heart of the season and the western Gulf Coast earlier in the season. In the cycle we saw in the 1930s and 1940s, the increase in late-season activity meant that southwest Florida needed to be concerned about landfalls during the second half of October and early November. We believe this area should also be on notice late this season. Where we are in the decadal cycle, the influence of the cycle we have identified within this decadal cycle, and significantly warmer-than-normal northwestern Atlantic waters, all contribute to the increasing threat of a hurricane of the magnitude of 1938, 1944, and 1954 -- perhaps even stronger. This current cycle of above-normal Atlantic basin activity has so far spared the Northeast, especially New England. However, we are entering a stage where one or two major Northeast hurricanes are of great concern within the next 10 years and, this year, the ingredients look ominous



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